Passengers of Time
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Fairbourne is situated on the north Welsh coast, sitting only 3m above sea level. It is sandwiched between the foothills of Eyri national park, and a salt marsh/estuary to the north. It faces the Irish Sea, with only a shingle bank and WW2 era defences in between. It is a village that is home to primarily English settlers and retirees.
It has suffered some flood events in the past, and is forecast to experience more in the future - especially in the mid century. If long-term sea level rise (SLR) predictions are correct; then Fairbourne could become at least partly and permanently submerged by the year 2100.
I visited Fairbourne and the surrounding area in early 2023 with two classmates. We wanted to understand - what is the baseline? What landscape assets does the region currently possess that could help with alleviating long-term SLR?
Baseline
A Victorian era foot and rail bridge spans the estuary which separates Barmouth and Fairbourne. Barmouth is a traditional seaside town, popular since the turn of the 20th century as a destination for holidaymakers from the Midlands. The advent of nationwide rail allowed for more people to enjoy the UK coastline. We stayed in Barmouth during our visit.
The estuary is a dangerous place. It drains and fills rapidly owing to the severity of the Mawddach tidal range.
Crossing the footbridge over Mawddach estuary
Everything about this area is traditional. One of these traditions is the grazing of the salt marsh by livestock. This may seem fine - to be expected - however, as we will see, some traditions need to change in order to influence progress.
The area is also home to a boggy wetland. Everything about Fairbourne and its surrounds is wet. Everywhere, a confluence of water sources - dykes, inlets and streams merge with the salt marsh and, ultimately, the Irish Sea, making this a very damp place indeed.
Fairbourne beach, once reached after clambering over the steep shingle slope and gnarly dunes, is a visceral, elemental place. Visiting in February gave us the full spectrum - high winds, treacherous tides, cold, salt spray, lots of waves.
That seawall will not withstand what is to come. With extreme SLR predictions almost tripling the +1m end of century baseline scenario, a crumbling, old-world engineered wall isn't going to cut it. The big question is: what are the alternatives?
The walk from Barmouth to Fairbourne - all the way to the Friog's corner and back, nearly took us the whole day. We were caught by high tide. Luckily, the water does not rise high enough - yet - to block the way back.
The Victorian mini-rail attraction at Fairbourne.
A disused quarry, not far from the village, offers opportunity for all kinds of recreational and ecological attractions. Yet, the quarry is under private ownership, and the owners have blocked off all access to the Blue Lake - a lagoon which would be a fantastic swimming area, as well as a sanctuary for local wildlife.
It presents the opportunity for a novel experience.
Flood Analysis
It is important to understand that this thesis considers the passage of time as one of its design principles.
Many thousands of years ago, most of the United Kingdom and Ireland (as we call them today) were under ice.
7000 years ago, a village near modern day Tel Aviv built a seawall. Today, that village and that seawall are submerged.
That red dot on the ice sheet map? That's the Cairngorm mountain range. Two weeks ago, it was on fire.
Our planet is 65 billion years old.
What does all this tell us?
That change is inevitable. That what we have built for ourselves is temporary. Catastrophe (from a human perspective) sometimes goes hand in hand with progress (from a universal perspective). Whether we have caused or just exacerbated our current climate behaviour is irrelevant. Yes, the burning of fossil fuels is bad for the atmosphere. Yes, mass industrial farming practices contribute significantly to the loss of wilderness.
However, when considered on a grand time scale, i.e. freeze/thaw, warm/cool, growth/extinction, it is all irrelevant.
What matters right now is the answer to this question: can we peacefully coexist with the forces that will inevitably bring our destruction?
That question assumes that humanity will continue on the trajectory we have set ourselves on since the industrial revolution. It assumes that the rate of our population growth will exert exponential pressure on our planet. This pressure will hit a critical mass at a certain point if it is not stopped or controlled.
The map above is a meta-analysis of my research into localised flooding at Fairbourne. It shows flood scenarios for the year 2100. The baseline is 1m - widely believed to be the minimum level our oceans will rise by the end of the century. As mentioned earlier, Fairbourne is host to a variety of water sources, not only the sea.
The baseline as of 2023
The current land use for Fairbourne's surrounds is primarily livestock grazing. There's a horse place nearby where people can ride ponies and look at horses. There's a vintage car showroom. There's a miniature railway which takes you up to the spit and back. There's also a golf course.
Then, there's a lot of drainage ditches, dykes, outflows, culverts, canals, retention basins, swales; you name it, if it's a human-made way of holding or diverting water, it's built here.
A sequence of engineered hard materials stand between the sea and village. Shingle, rock armour. And, dragons teeth - concrete bollards designed to stop tanks.
What if this was all opened?
That would mean Fairbourne would be flooded almost immediately, as it is built on ancient marshland. But, if the seas are to rise as they are predicted to, isn't inundation inevitable? It is possible to build a higher wall. But what happens 40 years later?
Isn't there a more organic way to do this?
In this scenario, the year is 2100.
Concept
The design concept focuses on several keywords: acceptance, adaptation, and ephemeral.
It takes the stance that the existing population of Fairbourne have been safely relocated to either higher ground or the experimental adaptive floating village built after an SLR event.
Remember that, on the grand scale of things, what we are currently experiencing as climate change is part of a much larger cycle that we can not influence or change.
The International Panel of Climate Change (IPCC) is an international body stuffed full of the world's brainiest boffins crunching data and building climate models. The IPCC predicts that, by 2100, we'll experience a net SLR of 1m, which means much of the low-lying land and islands we know today will be submerged. Basically the whole of East Anglia flooded.
Extrapolate this worldwide, and millions will be displaced.
Think about the implications of this for a moment.
Mass displacement + Unchecked population growth + Less inhabitable land = Conflict.
SLR will indirectly cause - or, more appropriately, provide reason - far war. More refugees seeking shelter. More tension. More protest.
Add on to that water scarcity, polarisation, and rapid tech growth, what do you see in our future?
Do you see how it all ends?
The following designs and masterplans should thus be considered in this light. They are whimsical and a little bit silly. That's because I would prefer to imagine 2100 as a world where we have come to terms with our collective mortality, and have finally released that the natural systems surrounding us are there to sustain and protect us from things like floods and drought. In this world, we have adapted to and become symbiotic with those systems.
image credit: https://landezine.com/tudela-club-med-restoration-in-cap-de-creus-by-emf-landscape-architecture/
Cap de Creus, Catalunya
EMF Landscape Architects 2010
Restoring a landscape and making it accessible for rest and exploration also invites the potential for introspection. This project captures the raw materials of the Catalunyan coast as part of the journey; the destination is the seaview; the experience is framed and remembered through architectural form.
This is a restorative project. It pays respect to the environment by integrating into it without obtrusion. A well-designed series of cute, minimalistic points of interest provide a curious trail to follow.
Zandmotor, Belgium
H+N+S 2016
A landmark, controversial project and the main inspiration behind the design outcome of this thesis. This is an undertaking that requires time to understand its true impact. It is a project that evolves in ways that can not be planned. But it was all done for one reason: to explore different solutions to SLR defense.
Starting the Zandmotor meant that the offshore seabed had to be dredged rather aggressively. The dredged sand was then deposited on the existing beach to thicken and fortify it. Shaped much like a wave, the theory was that the tides and wave energy would, over time, deposit sand further along the coastline, thus creating a 'motor' that worked to bolster the natural defensive capabilities of the coastline. If the concept worked, then beneficial residual effects, such as lagoon and dune creation, would occur.
And they occurred. As did a plethora of other surprising, charming, and unique outcomes.
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